Records

The pool under greedy: does a pool selected under expectimax transfer

Registration be95e294-19d1-4663-821b-95441bbce000 (study setups/selection-by-self-play), run 2026-09-19 on AMD Ryzen AI Max (Strix Halo), 32 threads, 125 GB unified memory, Radeon 8060S via ROCm, Linux 6.18. Server commit 0eb994c, research commit 19c62a6.

Command:

cd server && target/release/matchup -- --red 'greedy-pool=greedy:{"setup":"pool:../research/content/assets/setup-pool.json"}' --blue 'greedy-prior=greedy:{"setup":"structured"}' --games 200 --seed 0 --rules training --threads 8 --out ../research/runs/setup-selection/cell-greedy-pool-v-prior.json --record-dir ../research/runs/setup-selection/records-greedy-pool-v-prior --tag be95e294-19d1-4663-821b-95441bbce000

Both seats play greedy with the counting belief; the red side draws its setup uniformly from the selected 32-entry pool, the blue side from the structured prior. The pool was selected under expectimax, not greedy, so this cell measures transfer, not selection quality.

Player	Wins	Draws	Losses	Effective	95% Wilson	Mean plies	ms/move
greedy-pool	89	68	43	0.615	0.546 to 0.680	279	0.002
greedy-prior	43	68	89	0.385	0.320 to 0.454	279	0.002
ending: flag_captured	125
ending: no_moves	7
ending: quiet_limit	68

Per-seed paired contrast for the pool side: mean 0.230, 95% normal interval 0.111 to 0.349 over 100 seeds (52 positive, 28 split, 20 negative). The pool side won 35 games as Red and 54 as Blue. Draw share 34%, every draw by the quiet-move limit, under the 40% flag line of the older registrations but high enough to name: greedy against greedy stalls often, and the draws thin the contrast's evidence without changing its sign. No game ended within 20 plies. Wall time 0.05 s on 8 threads.

The transfer holds: the interval sits above zero under a move policy the pool was not selected under, and the point estimate 0.230 is below the 0.315 expectimax converted, as the registration guessed.

Provenance

Archived JSON: runs/setup-selection/cell-greedy-pool-v-prior.json (SHA-256 5b04b3aca3e19e7c028707947ce88bb2966619cff7e8aa871863bf48b34c9fa8); per-game records under runs/setup-selection/records-greedy-pool-v-prior/. Games planned 200, attempted 200, completed 200, interrupted 0. No deviation from the registration; the cell is descriptive and no promotion rides on it alone.